Playmaker has a better track record of predicting high-rated busts than booms. That said, any concerns that scouts have about Burks' game should be taken seriously. Some of the NFL's greatest receivers came from programs such as Marshall and Central Michigan University. The Razorbacks may not be a top-10 program like Alabama or Ohio State, but that shouldn't matter. Burks, however, edges each of the other top four prospects in all of the receiving rate stats despite also having more rushing attempts. Historically, star college wideouts with more college rushing attempts per game tend to have less impressive stats in the passing game than their talent would otherwise produce. The Razorbacks also used Burks successfully in the running game, as he recorded 112 yards on only 14 carries. Importantly, the Arkansas Razorbacks only passed 294 times this season, which means that Burks' 1,123 receiving yards and 11 touchdown receptions are much more impressive than they appear on the surface. Similar Historical Prospects: Amari Cooper, Brandin CooksĪccording to Playmaker, Burks tops the group of "good but not great" wide receivers in this draft. Treylon Burks, Arkansas: 737 Yards/Season Our similar historical prospects are based on former players who were similar in their Playmaker statistics, so you might see us compare two physically dissimilar players because they were similar statistically. Thus, in addition to the Playmaker Score factors, Playmaker Projection also incorporates a transformed variable based on the player's projected draft position from ESPN's Scouts Inc.īelow, we take a look at some of Playmaker's top prospects in the 2022 NFL draft, along with some similar prospects from previous drafts. Playmaker Projection acknowledges that a player with a first-round grade and a mediocre Playmaker Rating is more likely to succeed than a seventh-rounder whom Playmaker Rating loves. Playmaker Projection (which projects each wideout's average receiving yards over the course of his first five NFL regular seasons) is a more realistic measurement. For example, a player with a 75% Playmaker Rating scores more highly than 75% of wide receiver prospects drafted since 1996. Playmaker Score has two outputs: "Playmaker Rating" and "Playmaker Projection." Playmaker Rating is the "purest" output for Playmaker Score: it is expressed as a percentage that measures how highly the player ranks historically based on the factors evaluated by Playmaker Score. A factor that gives a bonus to wide receivers who played for the same college team, entered the draft for the same year, and are projected to be drafted.Īs always, Football Outsiders' 2022 NFL draft coverage is presented by Underdog Fantasy!.The wide receiver's rushing attempts per game during their peak season for receiving yards per team attempt and.
A variable that rewards players who enter the draft as underclassmen and punishes those who exhaust their college eligibility.The difference between the prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt and the prospect's most recent season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt (this factor is simply "0" for a player whose peak season was his most recent season).The prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt.The prospect's best or "peak" season for receiving yards per team attempt (i.e., a wide receiver with 1,000 receiving yards whose team passed 400 times would score a 2.50).Playmaker Score is a model that projects NFL success for wide receivers based on a statistical analysis of all of the Division I wide receivers drafted in the years 1996 to 2018, and measures the following: In a draft with so many closely rated prospects based on tape, a statistical analysis of what has correlated to success in the past could be helpful to break up the logjam. This dynamic makes the selection process even more hazardous for NFL general managers, who will have many similarly-rated wide receivers to choose from and are likely to be intensely second-guessed if they pick a bust. This year, five players-Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Treylon Burks, and Jameson Williams-are all projected to go in the first round, but no one is quite sure what their order of selection will or should be. Most prognosticators agreed that Ja'Marr Chase was the top wide receiver prospect in the 2021 NFL draft. NFL Draft - Although nothing is certain in the NFL draft, this year's wide receiver class seems to be more uncertain than most.
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